BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, Wall Street asset managers, have submitted applications to launch spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with experts now predicting a 50% likelihood of approval. The current regulatory crackdown has not deterred them.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and 21Shares, who want to list their product under the ticker ARKB on the CBOE platform, are in the lead in the race to introduce an ETF.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the SEC has many previous deadlines that have been extended that will be coming up before the January 10, 2024, date for approving or refusing that listing. The final deadline for the ETF sponsored by BlackRock, which is the one that revived hope that a spot ETF may be authorized, comes on March 15 of the same year.
Equal chances of success
Notably, the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF are currently calculated by Bloomberg’s own team of ETF experts to be 50/50.
In a recent update, James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence ETF stated, « The SEC has long rejected such proposals, but its recent request for more information signals a greater willingness to engage with applicants. »
Bitcoin rises after BlackRock ETF filing
Despite the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) giving no indication that BlackRock’s ETF application would be granted or even that it has been filed, the SEC’s receipt of the ETF application on June 16 has already sparked a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin.
Instead, it appears that traders are making a wager that BlackRock, a Wall Street powerhouse with extensive political ties, would have the influence necessary in Washington to get its application accepted, despite previous denials.
The trading price of Bitcoin has increased by nearly 22% since June 16, rising from about $25,600 on the filing day to $31,300 as of today. This shows how positively the market perceives the firm’s filing for an ETF.
Professionals forecast a successful outcome
Sui Chung, CEO of CF Benchmarks, a company that offers cryptocurrency indexes, stated earlier this month that he is « very optimistic » about the SEC’s eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in light of the numerous fresh filings that are now available.
I Chung added, citing information-sharing agreements between the listing exchange and crypto exchanges as a vital safeguard.
Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale, has recently expressed optimism on the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“Today we have a market of multiple bitcoin futures-based ETFs. […] At Grayscale, we’ve long been prepared for a marketplace of multiple spot bitcoin ETFs,” he stated. He also added: “When I really zoom out and look at how much progress has been made […] I do think we are at a pivotal moment.”
